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REDSHADOWWITHGREENBACKGROUND

I THINK I AM, THEREFORE...?????
Articles Posted: 223  Links Seeded: 2462
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Thursday is Election Day in the United Kingdom, England--Who will Win?

Wed May 5, 2010 3:13 PM EDT
world-news, europe, election, democrat, uk, conservative, united-kingdom, liberal, england, labor, ireland, scotland, wales
By redshadowwithgreenbackground
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May is a national general election day in he United Kingdom. There are three main parties, Labour, led by the current prime minister, Gordon Brown, Conservative/Tory, led by David Cameron, and Liberal Democrat, led by Nick Clegg. There are several minor sand regional parties with no chance to win. Labour has been min power 12 years but Brown has been PM only just over a year. Liberal Democrats have never held power.

The race is close between the three main parties with Conservatives at 35% and Labour and LD each at 28%. However the UK election is not like the US presidential election. Each voter can only vote for one candidate within his/her district as their Member of Parliament, not for PM. The newly elected parliament then chooses the new PM by majority vote, with 328 needed to win. If no party elects 328 MPs there will have to be a coalition government or new elections.

The parliament is elected for 5 years if the government holds on to a majority. If they lose the majority in parliament, new elections must be held early. I wish the UK a successful election and a majority government of one party. My prediction is Conservatives will win 333 seats and form the new government.

If there is no majority party I think Conservatives and LDs will form a coalition with Cameron as PM and that it will last two or three years.

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redshadowwithgreenbackground

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/election_2010/scotland/8662459.stm

  • 1 vote
Reply#1 - Wed May 5, 2010 2:17 PM EDT
redshadowwithgreenbackground

This is the first election in over 50 years where 3 parties have a chance to win.,

  • 1 vote
Reply#2 - Wed May 5, 2010 2:18 PM EDT
Soph0571

Hi red - for what it is worth I think the Conservatives will just get it by a couple of seats. A lot of people out there would never say they are voting Tory but will do it in the election booth. I'm not sure who I am going for yet and I am in a key marginal - tomorrow night through to Friday is going to be very interesting!

    Reply#3 - Wed May 5, 2010 3:37 PM EDT
    Lord Mcniff Palmer

    Hi Soph,

    I think you are right. I have friends in all parties. I have spoken with all of them and funnily enough, they are all claiming a narrow victory, especially the Lib Dems. My fear is that Labour will join forces with the LIB Dems and try to form a Government. This will simply fall apart after a few bun fights in the house of commons. Then the country will be thrown to the dogs. Things are bad enough at the moment. We are weeks behind Greece, except we are a lot less militant. Can’t see you for example petrol bombing the Royal Bank of BarclaLooyds. The only two options then are 1. Don’t vote & don’t blame me. Or vote Conservative and blame the Tories later. I think on balance there will be a Tory win but by a slender margin. My poll is showing 2 seats at the moment. There will be an interesting sting in the tail in the old RYEDALE N Yorkshire constituency on the 27 May. I will not be in the UK at that time as I shall be in New York and then on to MidEast and then Cuba. So can’t cover what will be a late poll for the general election. Maybe if I give you the contact details you could cover this for newsvine for me.

    • 2 votes
    #3.1 - Wed May 5, 2010 5:49 PM EDT
    Soph0571

    No probs:) Yeah i think Ryedale will kick balls in the arse LOL - I hope cameron gets it - I have voted Labour all my adult life but I cannot do it this time - and we cannot have a hung parliament IMO

      #3.2 - Wed May 5, 2010 5:53 PM EDT
      Reply
      Josh Rosenroth

      This time, the Conservatives are gonna win, I think.

      The system of a relative majority is weird. In a three-party race, a party with 34 per cent of the votes can win an overall majority, albeit slim chance, they can even win all mandates.
      The Conservatives with polls expectations of 35 per cent (vs. 30 pc of Labour) are able to win with a landslide. But beware of the Liberals (28 pc +), it means that a coalition is in reach. When it goes against the Libs they only get a few seats. SNP might get more in the worst case for Liberal Democrats. Therefore, they should change to a proportional system.

        Reply#4 - Wed May 5, 2010 5:38 PM EDT
        Lord Mcniff Palmer

        Thanks Soph.

        I can give you the candidate’s party office details. Their agents etc for a good story if it turns out to be the scoop I think it might. I know three of them very well. I can also let you have the details for the guy who organises the hustings. Will it work if I contact the author on newsvine or do I publish my email address on the vine?

        Mcniff

          Reply#5 - Wed May 5, 2010 6:15 PM EDT
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